imd

IMD's normal monsoon forecast brings respite to policymakers
ET Bureau, Apr 20, 2011, 03.47am IST
Tags:

* rural economy|
* normal monsoon

NEW DELHI: The government on Tuesday forecast normal monsoon rains for the country in 2011, boosting prospects of the farm sector and giving respite to policymakers struggling to check rising inflation.

Quantitatively, the overall rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-period average with a 5% margin of error, minister for earth sciences Pawan Kumar Bansal said.


The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will update its forecast in June along with details of the regional spread of rains.

Although, the contribution of the farm sector to the gross domestic product has fallen to 14% and diversification of the rural economy has reduced the impact of the rains to some extent, monsoon still enjoys a sentimental value. An outlook of a deficient monsoon could provoke hoarding and push food prices higher.

IMD director-general Ajit Tyagi said there was a 'very low' probability of a deficient rainfall between the crucial months of June and September.

The forecast of a normal monsoon will allay concerns over inflation, which has remained stubbornly high despite eight rate hikes by the RBI since March 2010.

Experts, however, cautioned against reading too much in the first official monsoon forecast. "The timeliness and geographical spread of the monsoons are more important for agriculture," said D K Joshi, chief economist with Crisil. "We would get to know about those only later."

India has stocks of food well in excess of the buffer norms, but poor rains could affect production of fruit, vegetables and pulses. These have been the main drivers of food inflation.

Experts said a possible weakening of La Nina conditions, or the cooler-than-average surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could affect the monsoon.

"We are monitoring sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans carefully," Tyagi said. "So long as La Nina conditions remains neutral, there is no cause for worry."

The forecast in June will provide rainfall likelihood for July and August over the country as a whole and the seasonal rainfall over the four geographical regions of India. This will be a more crucial forecast for the farm sector as kharif sowing depends largely on the progress of the monsoon.