India's monsoon rains hit mainland two days early

By Ratnajyoti Dutta

NEW DELHI | Sun May 29, 2011 8:21am EDT

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's annual monsoon rains have hit the southern state of Kerala two days earlier than expected, weather officials said on Sunday, boosting prospects for a harvest that could spur Asia's third-largest economy.

The July-September monsoon irrigates 60 percent of India's farms and good rains will brighten hopes for a bumper harvest that should ease high food prices and boost the purchasing power of the 600 million Indians dependent on agriculture.

Higher farm supplies could also encourage the government to allow wheat and rice exports, restricted since 2007 to boost domestic supplies to fight high food prices.

"It's been raining over the Kerala coast and over the Andaman sea," a senior official of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) told Reuters, declining to be named as he is not authorized to speak to the media.

The monsoon generally hits the mainland around June 1 and covers the rest of India by mid-July. The weather office predicted earlier it would arrive in Kerala on May 31.

They have forecast a normal monsoon this year, which would give India rainfall of between 96-104 percent of the 50-year average of 89 cm (35 inches) during the four-month period.

Predictions have often been proved wrong in the past, most recently two years ago when the IMD failed to predict the worst drought in nearly four decades. But if the forecast is right, 2011 will see the second straight year of normal rains.

Monsoon reaches Kerala

The monsoon has arrived in Kerala. Heavy rains have been reported since Saturday night in the central and southern districts of the state, an official of the India Meteorological Department said. Rains have also hit some parts of Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea, the official sa
id on Sunday.

Kumarakom, the pristine tourist destination in Kerala, has recorded the heaviest rainfall of 12 cm, he said.

An IMD report said that conditions were favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of the Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea and some parts of Karnataka during the next two-three days.

2005 onwards the IMD has been issuing forecasts on the onset of monsoon over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model. For the last six years the forecasts based on this model have been correct.

AAU study to find astrological impact on monsoons

Syed Khalique Ahmed Tags : Ananda Agriculture University, L D Chimote, Vice-Chancellor A M Sheikh Posted: Tue May 10 2011, 04:29 hrs Ahmedabad:


Anand Agriculture University (AAU) scientists are conducting a study to see if the movement of Sun and stars has an impact on the occurrence of rains.

The study aims to blend astrology and meteorology to predict the quantum of rainfall in a particular year — whether it will be a good monsoon or a drought year.

AAU has already distributed the astro-meteorlogical almanac, prepared by Pune-based astrologer L D Chimote, to sarpanchs and talatis of all the 18,000 villages across Gujarat. The villagers and the talatis have been asked to fill in details like the quantum of rainfall and how long it rained, on a daily basis in the calendar and report it to AAU at the end of every month.

Vice-Chancellor A M Sheikh told The Indian Express that the daily rainfall data received from all villages as per the astro-meteorological calendar will be collected and compared with 100 years rainfall data of 200 rainfall stations across Gujarat. AAU will then study and analyse as to what extent does astrological movements affect rainfall.

Sheikh said if the rainfall recorded is 60 per cent or above than astrological predictions, the predictions will be considered successful. Sheikh said a correction prediction of onset and withdrawal of monsoon as also distribution of rainfall will enable scientists to know if it will be a drought year or if there will be floods. “We can prepare a contingency agricultural plan and inform the farmers to change the crops,” said Sheikh.

monsoons

NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains are likely to hit the southern coast, as expected, on May 31, a weather office source said on Friday.

The four-month long rainy season starts over the Kerala coast and covers the rest of India and neighbouring countries by mid-July. The rains are crucial for the country's agriculture sector and influences any growth prospect.

The source said the monsoon rains were likely to arrive over the Andamans coast around May 20.